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Joe's Market Commentary:
QQQQ:
March 3rd, 2008: As long as 46.01 is not exceeded, the medium term trend will remain down with an eventual down side target
expected near a minimum of 38.70 to a maximum of near 35.50. On a short term basis, expect any advance in the Q's to stall
near 43.50 to 44.10 followed by the next sharp decline toward 42.15. Breaking below 42.15 increases my confidence in the
next sustainable decline toward this year's low of 41.61, which if broken, confirms the next wave of selling that will eventually
targeting a medium term low of 38.70. While not expected, exceeded 44.53 confirms a solid short term low is in place and
increases the odds of a stronger advance toward 44.88 to 45.88.
S&P 500 cash Index:
March 19, 2008: On March 17th, 2008, the S&P 500 fell to this years low of 1256.98 and satisfied our minimum down side target.
However, their is not enough technical evidence to support, just yet, a solid medium term low in place. It is our position
that as long as 1397 is not exceeded, the medium term trend will remain down and eventually target 1241 to a maximum of 1219.
On a short term basis, expect any counter trend advance to stall below 1341 and be followed by the next decline toward important
support at 1277. A decline below 1277 increases the odds of a stronger decline toward this year's low of 1256.98, which if
broken, increases my confidence in a stronger decline toward 1241 to 1219. While not expected, an advance above 1342 confirms
a solid short term low in place and increases the odds of an advance toward stronger overhead resistance at 1366.
DJIA:
March 27, 2008: As long as 13091 is not exceeded, the medium term trend will remain down with an eventual downside target
expected near 11270. Until 12289 is broken, allow for a bounce up near 12600 before turning sharply lower. A decline below
12289 confirms a solid short term top in place at the March high of 12622 will likely be followed by an eventual decline toward
important support at 11756. A sharp decline, on strong downside volume below 11756 confirms the next sustainable decline
in progress and increases my confidence in a decline toward this years low of 11634 and targeting a medium term low near 11270.
While not expected, an advance above 12768 signals the first clue that a possible medium term low may already be in place
and increases the odds of a stronger advance toward 12932.
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